Who is into trading and investing?

bernard

bernard

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I've begun investing and trading following selling my sites and that's something I could see myself doing as a future part-time income source.

It's not that different from online marketing in my book, find trends and niches, understand value, look at graphs and numbers changing, all the things I like.

Personally, I think a combination of position investing (mid term) and swing trading (3-10 days or weeks) fits my mindset the best. I am too impatient to "hold and forget" but don't want to make it another job by being a daytrader.

That will be a combination of trend-spotting, niche knowledge and technical analysis. My niches will likely be tech and trends that are affected by geopolitics and cultural shifts, such as weapons, energy, food, emerging markets, ecommerce etc. Technical analysis will be used to determine underbought/oversold and look for upcoming catalysts based on cultural or geopolitical trend-patterns.

I'm also using AI to suggest good stocks to consider. Claude 3.5 Sonnet was great at this until they nerfed it recently. It could also do great technical analysis and suggest stop loss, profit taking, buying strategy etc.

Is anyone else interested in trading and investing actively?
 
I saw you sold some BTC for 30% profit in the other thread - good for you.

As someone who has been there, tried that, I would urge caution. Especially if you are sitting on some cash after selling some sites.

Everyone is a genius in a bull market (which we are in).

Not saying you won't make it, but what you are trying to do is suited for a very small percentage of people. Miniscule.
 
Darth said:
I saw you sold some BTC for 30% profit in the other thread - good for you.

As someone who has been there, tried that, I would urge caution. Especially if you are sitting on some cash after selling some sites.

Everyone is a genius in a bull market (which we are in).

Not saying you won't make it, but what you are trying to do is suited for a very small percentage of people. Miniscule.
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Yeah I am aware of that for sure, beginners luck, but that's also just the dopamine I need to go hyperfocus on that. To be honest, now that I'm not doing affiliate websites anymore, it's good to have some numbers to look at and analyze again.

I tried becoming a poker pro back in the day and was a winning player, but not enough to make it worthwhile, tilting issues, which is what I could fear could happen here too and why I am not going to be a daytrader.

In any case, knowing about investing and trading can't hurt, even if its just to manage the money.
 
Oh nice, yes poker players have a better chance at it
 
I got into it during covid like a bunch of others. Made a bunch of money on a fluke option play early and spent the next year and a half giving it back; I consider it cost of learning. You can read read read but nothing like a 30% haircut in a day to drill a lesson into your brain.

I was mostly playing binary events in biotech (drug approvals, etc) and in the end found the most consistent success in selling covered calls into and jumping out before the actual event (maybe leaving a little to ride depending on the situation).

I would say if you've had a big dopamine hit off one of your first trades and that's got you interested that's great, but try to remember that that's the exception and not the rule. Chasing that down could have you focused on the wrong things and leave you with bad expectations of success. The guys that really win are the ones that nibble away at everyone else's lunch consistently, not the ones that feast once a year (if that).
 
I lost a lot of money (to me, at the time) a few years ago gambling on the stock market, because I got too confident after a lucky win.

Here to echo Darth's statements about caution, unless you can afford to lose money.

My Dad's advice has always been to buy stocks that pay dividends, as many as you can, and hold them for decades. He retired before 60 and now lives off quarterly dividends.

When I was gambling with stocks, my Dad told me I was going to lose money, and he was right.

Nowadays I try to invest more like my Dad.
 
Good inputs, I would think you only really risk everything if you go into trading options or with other gearing.

I'm more into basic portfolio management, stop losses, profit taking and all that, not going to the moon on meme stocks.

I do find the process of finding stocks very enjoyable, having a thesis, then finding stocks, analyzing if they're overpriced or priced right by looking at technicals, setting a goal target, where to set stop loss. I enjoy it.
 
You only risk everything when you risk everything. Options are a tool like any other - you can use them to hedge, you can use them to earn a pseudo-dividend or lower your cost basis, you can use them to straight speculate like lots of people do.

Nothing wrong with taking a traditional approach but you're fighting an uphill battle. The share of active managers in the market is shrinking and their average returns are converging with that of the market in general.

The ones that have stuck around fight tooth and nail for that extra point or two they earn with teams and resources far beyond what you and I have access to. It means a lot to them at the scale they're working at. It is very difficult to beat them at their own game. You might be better off putting that money in the S&P and sticking to your day job (so to speak, I know you have extenuating circumstances).

You can try and hide in small cap and low float stocks that they can't operate in, but that's departing from that low risk traditional approach you're going for.

Long story short the stock market just isn't what it used to be. The shift in the US from traditional pensions to 401Ks have basically turned it into the nation's retirement fund. It is both more and less volatile, and has completely departed from any fundamental basis.

If you enjoy the process like you say then I would encourage you to keep going; learning about the stock market and macroeconomics in general is one of the best things I've done in the last few years and it's really useful in this day and age to be able to look at the world through that lens. If instead you're looking for the best return on your time, I'm not sure the juice is worth the squeeze.
 
Good points again, what you say to a counterpoint that with increasing index and ETF investing, that the price mechanism becomes more distorted over time?

Something to add is that we know have AI. I don't think that is to be underestimated. You can get both fundamental analysis and just as important technical analysis done easily and quickly.
 
Yes, exactly. The idea behind passive is that it is market neutral since it buys in proportion to market cap.

The problem with that is it doesn't take liquidity/float into account, so that proportional market cap buy can lead to disproportionate changes in market values of the stocks. Stocks with high market cap and low liquidity see greater increases in price, and in turn higher market cap, and the cycle repeats and compounds. Combine that with a reduction in active managers who would sell in response (the expected price correction mechanism) and you get not only soaring valuations, but also most of that focused on a few top stocks (eg FAANG, NVDA, the Mag Seven become the Fab Four, etc).

Mike Green is at the forefront of this idea and has a lot of great interviews on YouTube.
 
Which does suggest that there's an increasing edge for stockpicking, but that of course doesn't mean the amateur can take advantage of that.

I will say that I regret selling Tesla already even though I made 50% on that, because now I have to buy in again and it's not dipping to where AI told me to wait for lol.
 
Since the armageddon on content sites, I have been mostly focusing my time on forex/CFD trading. It's still all demo account testing, but I am getting close to profitability. I found a partner who is into this as well and codes. So I build the strategy and he codes the algo and we test it.

Hope to have a profitable working strategy in the next month or so.
 
I pick my battles. I know that I'm quite ignorant with stocks and I don't have much time to research and analyse companies, so I stick to ETFs. Where I win is that I invest in tax advantage accounts such as 401k or solo 401k or IRA.
For me, it is easier to save 30% on taxes, than it is to get an extra 30% out through research and picking the right stocks. Plus, its guaranteed.
I invest in my business, ETFs, bond ETFs, and real estate.
 
Delegation is everything. Only investing I do is crypto now.
 
BakerStreet said:
I pick my battles. I know that I'm quite ignorant with stocks and I don't have much time to research and analyse companies, so I stick to ETFs. Where I win is that I invest in tax advantage accounts such as 401k or solo 401k or IRA.
For me, it is easier to save 30% on taxes, than it is to get an extra 30% out through research and picking the right stocks. Plus, its guaranteed.
I invest in my business, ETFs, bond ETFs, and real estate.
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I agree, tax optimization is the single most important thing you can do to get rich, but most people are not willing to what it takes aka moving to a tax haven.
 
bernard said:
I agree, tax optimization is the single most important thing you can do to get rich, but most people are not willing to what it takes aka moving to a tax haven.
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True. If you go to a tax haven you lose a lot of social benefits. Plus if you have no social ties there you really have no place to be there socially and won’t fit in. I wouldn’t give up my social life just for money. I actually have a good life and that’s what people want money for anyways.
 
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