Where do you see the future?

[Steve]

What's for sure is there's going to be a big boom as soon as they release a foldable touch screen like Samsung (I think) did.

Do you think there is enough demand for foldables? I kind of had it pegged in the same league as 3d TV - interesting but ultimately a bit shit.

 

[CCarter]

No arguing here. Just stating facts and their revenue numbers speak for themselves. I bought my first shares of AAPL in 2001 and MSFT almost 20 yrs ago. I am well-versed in their biz. And I actually worked at Microsoft in the early 2000's. Yes, people are holding onto their iPhone longer. This isn't news to anyone. Apple didn't start it's biz with the iPhone. The Mac and iPod were once a large percentage of the revenue as well. Tech is constantly changing. The iPhone is around 50% of their revenue. They are diversifying and have grown other segments. Services and wearables alone would be their own public company they are so large now. iPhone sales will see another major bump in revenue with the upcoming upgrade cycle with 5G tech over the coming years.

I've heard and read sooooo many predictions about Apple will fail over the last 5+ yrs because the iPhone sales are slowing. Look again at the stock charts. Apple is one of the best at innovating and staying relevant than any company in the world.

As far as MSFT, when was Bing ever significant? It has always basically been a side business for them. Google has always completely dominated search. But doesn't mean Bing and the other search companies should be ignored. There is still massive $$$ that can be made from them.

The stock price is based off of short term investor emotions. It has nothing to do with “innovation” or being a “future” leader.

You are ignoring consumer behavior just like you did in the Toy R Us discussion. You said Toys R us would be fine and still opening the doors. That ignored the fact consumers stopped going to the stores long before they went bankrupt.

If a company doesn’t answer the consumers leaving or stalling they’ll be dead.

It is why consumers don’t care about Microsoft.

And Apple, I love Apple, but Steve Jobs who turned the company into what it is - is gone. All the people that turned that company into an innovating juggernaut are gone.

And I am an Apple fanboy. I use their operating system daily, it’s gone downhill. I don’t see a reason to upgrade my phone. And The Apple Watch always looked like a gimmick. Their Mac Pro, desktop, went downhill nearly a decade ago when they stopped putting out newer models.

I can go on and on, but as a consumer - meh all around. But I don’t matter, even though i have probably bought more Apple products in my lifetime that most normal people could in 10 lifetimes.

The consumer perception of a company is what matters, not the investors or stock price. You can keep pointing to it, but Toy R us’s stock, Blockbuster, and countless others had stock investors who thought they would be around forever and Then they weren’t.

Look at consumer behavior if you are looking to the future, not a stock price.

 

[Samwise89]

Do you think there is enough demand for foldables? I kind of had it pegged in the same league as 3d TV - interesting but ultimately a bit shit.

I think foldables will be a huge novelty at first, as usual, before we get back down to reality. The attraction to me, which I assume enough other people are thinking, is that we got phones down to be really slim, but they started getting taller and wider.

Foldables fixes the tallness issue, it provides a natural defense for a lot of scenarios when we drop our phones and crack the glass (but you know they'll put screens on the outside too for notifications), it stops the need for buying a protective case (decorative will be a thing im sure).

I don't know, I think it'll catch on and possibly even lead to a small return of the normal ass flip phones for non-smart phones.

I think it's all a part of the progression to OLED screens being pliable and inexpensive, to the point we could roll up our TVs and store them in a shipping tube eventually.

A big part of generating demand isn't really about what the people want. It's about what the people are offered. And I think the industry wants to move towards bendy screens on everything, eventually wearables like screens embedded in your jacket sleeve, and things like that. I don't think we're going to be offered much of a choice from the big players.

 

[backwoods]

The stock price is based off of short term investor emotions. It has nothing to do with “innovation” or being a “future” leader.

You are ignoring consumer behavior just like you did in the Toy R Us discussion. You said Toys R us would be fine and still opening the doors. That ignored the fact consumers stopped going to the stores long before they went bankrupt.

If a company doesn’t answer the consumers leaving or stalling they’ll be dead.

It is why consumers don’t care about Microsoft.

And Apple, I love Apple, but Steve Jobs who turned the company into what it is - is gone. All the people that turned that company into an innovating juggernaut are gone.

And I am an Apple fanboy. I use their operating system daily, it’s gone downhill. I don’t see a reason to upgrade my phone. And The Apple Watch always looked like a gimmick. Their Mac Pro, desktop, went downhill nearly a decade ago when they stopped putting out newer models.

I can go on and on, but as a consumer - meh all around. But I don’t matter, even though i have probably bought more Apple products in my lifetime that most normal people could in 10 lifetimes.

The consumer perception of a company is what matters, not the investors or stock price. You can keep pointing to it, but Toy R us’s stock, Blockbuster, and countless others had stock investors who thought they would be around forever and Then they weren’t.

Look at consumer behavior if you are looking to the future, not a stock price.

First off, regarding Toys R Us - the scenario played out like I mentioned. They wiped out that massive debt after the BK, thinned out stores and now are in the process of re-opening stores with a different strategy. The brand still has value and they can make it work if they focus properly. People haven't stopped buying toys.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/27/toys-r-us-is-back-heres-a-look-inside-its-first-new-store.html

Best Buy had a massive resurgence after many thought they would go belly-up like many retailers have to Amazon. They had a smart turnaround plan and have been one of the best performers over the last 7 yrs. Will Toys R Us be able to do the same thing? Who knows.

And Apple. Steve Jobs has been gone for nearly a decade now. He personally persuaded Tim Cook to join Apple over 20 yrs ago. And he selected him to take over his position when he knew his time was up.

Steve Jobs passed away on October 5, 2011. On that day, shares of Apple closed at a split adjusted price of $50.53 per share. Today they trade at $300+ a share. This isn't some "short term investors emotions" like you stated.

Apple now has $207.06 billion in cash on hand. Apple does $50 BILLION in profits per year.

They are jumping into many revenue streams and innovating. Lots of new tech patents are being filed and new tech in the pipeline that we don't even know about yet.

 

[CCarter]

First off, regarding Toys R Us - the scenario played out like I mentioned.

"On January 20, 2019, the company emerged from bankruptcy as Tru Kids. Currently, there are only 2 locations open in the United States." (source: Toys R Us)

Like I said, people arguing just to argue.

They are jumping into many revenue streams and innovating.

You are still quoting stock prices instead of looking at consumer behavior. You literally are pasting stock images now - wow.

 

[Amir]

Toys R us isn't going to be the same store as it was before. It's going to be a place of interaction.. As far as its Product-type store. That shit is DEAD!

so ya they're opening back up back not like the way you're thinking.

"For one, the new locations — at the Galleria in Houston and Westfield Garden State Plaza in Paramus, N.J. —will be much smaller than their predecessors. And instead of aisles overflowing with packaged toys, the focus will be on open play areas, interactive displays and spaces for special events and birthday parties.
“We’re reinventing Toys R Us to make it fun and interactive for kids and parents,” said Richard Barry, a former Toys R Us executive who is leading the new venture. “This is a global brand that is absolutely beloved in the United States."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...-back-dead-its-new-stores-are-unrecognizable/

 

[cobblepot]

CCarter is right here, revenue is a lagging indicator, you make money today for efforts you put yesterday.

You can easily go bust mentally / innovation wise and still be making bank until all a sudden you don't

Do you think there is enough demand for foldables? I kind of had it pegged in the same league as 3d TV - interesting but ultimately a bit shit.

Foldable is pretty much the future, soon as costs come down

With the event of speech recognition.. Alexa for one instance

How do you all see where marketing is heading?

I have always loved SEO and still don't have a product so never transitioned to paid ad's

Do you see SEO, Paid Ad's or even YouTube diminishing or a transition we can't even guess yet?

Rob

My Opinions

Top 3 smartphone leaders will be from China (Huawei, BKK, Xiaomi)
and then maybe a distant fourth will be Google Pixel
Samsung -> component supplier / maker
Apple -> Bust

Largest internet users are now in Asia so dominant Internet culture will change, business models will need to adapt to that

Largest number of innovative minds will still speak english as 1st & or 2nd language

So a lot more western companies serving china and India will explode in growth! (Maybe Tesla will be the first example)

Google's New Initiatives (Hardware, Stadia) -> Boom!


Japan -> Bust
India, China -> Boom

 

[tyealia]

Re- Google search future and the Affiliate model

I still feel like google search is safe for a bit maybe it has 3-5 more years of guaranteed safety here as your main income generator. People will always search for things they don't know about and google is just easier for that rather than going and downloading an app to find out some information im going to stick with google for the minutia and product research.

Google is a corporation and needs to continue making money for shareholders. Many of these corporations focus on short term wins. If a CEO or manager of ad revenue is at risk of getting fired and he knows he can just add another google ad spot to search results to boost company revenue and show he is winning I am sure hell do it.

I do know its going to get worse and worse, we already saw paid product results screw organic buyer intent keywords then we saw more and more ads, then a few months ago you lost featured snippet and #1 results, they are slowly hacking away at content makers and SEO's. If you owned a best for x site in 2006 and were doing SEO you could get a massive amount of traffic being #1, this was the heyday of SEO's.

Now with so many featured google suggestions and random additions your results are cut down.

Serps in 2014

Google Serps now?
Well now you cant really distinguish ads from organic results, there are even more featured snippets taking over results and videos and for some results you have to scroll down to the very bottom to even see an organic listing. Google is basically trying to become the organic results.

Future?
I think soon they will take even more stabs at organic results, for best x results they tried before a system of putting their own comparison tables based on scraped reviews data. This will be coming I am guessing and cut down affiliates revenues even more. The internet is growing so your best bet to stay relevant will be to focus more and more on getting the global share of clicks rather than purely English to maintain profits.

World Search Engine Population Use

If your longterm plan is still SEO for the next 10 years, its a sad truth but your going to have a hard time unless you know what your doing. The reduced organic visibility coupled by algos that favor massive sites is making it more competitive and harder to get into for a smaller piece of a smaller pie.

New opportunities

As others have said though its not all doom and gloom, there are new things out there. Video marketing though it is getting saturated there are still huge opportunities in ppc. New platforms, influencer marketing are also great.

I agree with the poster that said before having your own product is now huge. You need to focus on building a brand and a business now more than ever and leveraging the new tools and mediums to grow your specific product and brand.